1.   Strong demand in the second half of 2009, especially in the fourth quarter, pushed annual sales 7.7% above 2008, representing the fourth highest annual activity level on record.

•         2009: 465,251

•         2008: 431,823

•         2007: 521,051

•         2006: 483,129

•         2005: 483,663

2.   7 out of 12 markets experienced a year-over-year increase in sales in 2009.

3.   Sales activity in 2009 started off soft and ended very strong. With record breaking low interest rates and the miss understanding from the consumer with the HST, we continue to see a strong first quarter in 2010.

•         Quarterly Sales:

•         Q1: 76,398

•         Q2: 147,303

•         Q3: 135,135

•         Q4: 106,415

4.   In markets which had been badly hurt last year, the turnaround has been astounding. In these markets, bidding contests are common again.

5.   The impressive recovery happening in Canada can be attributed to the following factors:

•         Pent-up demand from the recession

•         Low mortgage rates

•         In contrast to the major roadblocks faced by its neighbor south of border (such as high unemployment rate, stringent lending practices which may be keeping home sales from going up more), Canada’s housing market benefits from:

•         Availability of credit: lending condition has improved considerably thanks to sounder financial system and government support

•         Interest rates are now at its all-time low due to government’s quantitative easing monetary policy.

•         Stronger economic fundamentals

•         In addition, with housing starts below long-term demographic requirements, the number of houses on the market is still declining.

Home Prices

1.   The national average home price climbed 5% in 2009 to a record $320,333.

2.   The national average price was skewed upward by rebounding activity in the spring and summer months of 2009. As demand generally outpaced the supply of homes offered for sale, market conditions have tightened considerably in many parts of the country, leading to widespread increases in property values.

3.   The contribution of activity by higher priced markets toward the national average price has recently returned to more typical levels.

4.   Record level average prices in most regions are now driving the national average price to new heights.

5.   After relatively stagnant growth in the 90’s with home prices increasing on average at a rate of 1.04% (1990-2000), Canada experienced strong growth in prices from 2001 to 2007. Home prices appreciated at a rate of 9.39% during this period.

•         1980-1989: On average, home prices increased at an annual growth rate of 9.12% during this period

•         1990-1999: Annual growth rate stalled at 1.2%

•         2000-2009: Average growth rate climbed to 7.72%

6.   Why the stagnant growth?

•         Canada went through a property bust and recession in the 90’s.

•         Growth was stagnant in 1990, contracted 2.1% in 1991, and was stagnant again in 1992 as the economy faced a multitude of challenges.

•         The Bank of Canada was waging a war on inflation and raising interest rates.

•         The government had introduced the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to replace the Manufacturer’s Sales Tax (MST) and took an axe to government spending as they were faced with a revolt by international creditors.

•         Consumer spending dried up. Personal expenditures rose just 1.2% in 1990 year-over-year, fell 1.6% in 1991, and were mediocre in 1992 and 1993. It did not get back to 3% until 1994.

•         Incomes were also stagnant.

7.   Strong pent-up demand and tight inventory levels were some of the primary drivers contributing to this growth.

8.   Prices increased quickly while sales followed in tandem. Average home prices almost doubled from $155K in 1997 to $307K in 2007.

9.   The national average home price decreased by 1% in 2008, the first drop in more than a decade:

•         In 2008, prices increased in the first half of the year and softened considerably in the second half, reflecting the economic reality in Canada at the time, which was feeling the impact of a global recession and the fallout of the US battered economy.

Inventory: Sales-to-Listings Ratio

1.   Sales-to-Listings is an indicator of price pressures in the housing market.

•         Listings is a measure of supply and sales is a measure of demand.

2.   Indicators:

•         Sellers’ Market: More than 60% of the listings are selling.

•         Balanced Market: 40-60% of the listings are selling.

•         Buyers’ Market: Less than 40% of the listings are selling.

3.   For 2009, the sales-to-listings ratio was at 59%. In December, the non-seasonally adjusted sales-to-listings ratio was 88% and the seasonally adjusted ratio was 66%.

4.   Even after leveling out the impact of seasonal trends, we’re still well into the seller’s market.

•         When data is “seasonally adjusted”, its seasonal component is removed (e.g., spring/summer/winter/fall)

•         In the case of MLS data, sales generally follow a seasonal pattern: sales wane during winter months, and then pick up in the spring.

•         Comparing the data from one month to the next is most meaningful if the data is seasonally adjusted.

•         For example, warmer weather in March usually brings out more home buyers, and results in stronger MLS activity compared to February. However, unless the data is seasonally adjusted, there is no way of knowing to what extent the increase is related to seasonal weather changes.

•         By removing the seasonal component, trends can be better analyzed by enabling meaningful month-over-month comparisons.

Mortgage Rates

1.   5-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.63% in 2009, the lowest on record dating back to 1973. (Posted Rates at the Banks. Mike promoted rates as low at 3.79% of a 5 year mortgage)

2.   During the week ending February 3^rd, rates inched down to 5.39%.

3.   Mortgage rates averaged 5.49% in December 2009, a significant drop of 1.26% from 6.75% in December 2008. This was reflective of Bank of Canada’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by 3 percentage points to an all time low of 0.25% in an effort to combat weakened economic conditions and improve the credit markets.

4.   The Central Bank continues to uphold its conditional commitment to keep the policy rate at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to ensure that inflation stays on course to meet the medium-term target of 2%.

5.   30-year mortgages aren’t used. The norm is 5-year fixed with 25-year amortization.

6.   When rates were at the highest, Canada was in a buyers’ market. As rates declined, they moved from a balanced market to a sellers’ market.

Affordability (% of Income)

1.   Definition: Proportion of median pretax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments (principal, interest, property taxes, and utilities).

•         A rise in the measure represents a deterioration in affordability.

2.   Canadians have been feeling the impact of high ownership costs as they experienced deteriorating affordability over the past few years.

3.   Affordability improved by an average of 5.03% in the third quarter of 2009.

4.   Average since 1985:

•         Detached bungalow: 39% (Q3 2009: 40.2%)

•         Standard two-storey: 43.3% (Q3 2009: 45.8%)

•         Standard townhouse: 30.5% (Q3 2009: 32.3%)

•         Standard condo: 26.9% (Q3 2009: 27.6%)

5.   The string of significant improvements in housing affordability in Canada finally came to an end in the third quarter. RBC’s affordability measures rose at the national level for the first time in six quarters for all housing types.

6.   This follows steep declines since the spring of 2008, which had largely restored affordability levels to historical averages by mid-year this year.

7.   Despite the third-quarter increases, all measures are still down markedly from a year ago, thus maintaining homeownership at affordable rates and supporting housing demand across the country.

8.   Greater access to homeownership has been a key factor contributing to the impressive rebound in housing resales since the depths of the downturn late last year and early this year.

9.   The current levels in the RBC measures are in line with those in early 2006 when housing market activity was shifting into high gear in Canada.

10.               The reversal in the improving trend in affordability was caused by a recent pick-up in key mortgage rates as well as gains in property values – the earlier declines in both factors were the main factors that drove homeownership costs down through most of last year and the first half of this year.

11.               Also, generally strong resale market activity across the country has heated up housing prices again since mid-summer after months of widespread softness.

12.               With such strong market momentum across Canada, and mortgage rates having bottomed out earlier this year, it is unlikely that affordability will resume its improving trend in the near-term.

13.               According to RBC economist Robert Hogue, “The national home affordability level has been restored to pre-housing boom levels.” However, he warned that consumers shouldn’t expect affordability to improve much more. “The recuperative phase of the affordability cycle seems to be drawing to a close, with house prices firming up in many parts of the country, and mortgage rates no longer trending downward,” Hogue said.

14.               Despite predictions that home affordability is leveling off, RBC economists say the recent bounce-back in the housing market is not likely to wane any time soon.

15.               The priciest market continues to be Vancouver, where it generally takes more than 60% of pre-tax income to service a bungalow purchase.

One of the challenges of the housing market’s resurgence amid still-poor labor market conditions is that mortgage obligations are becoming more difficult to meet for a growing number of Canadian households.

Recovery in Canada

The recovery in Canada is underway, due to policy support, increased consumer confidence, improving credit conditions and improved terms of trade. Canada’s economy is expected to continue to build momentum in the quarters ahead. However, economists also expect the growth rate to trail those recorded during the early stages of past recoveries. Persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and sluggish U.S. demand provide downside risks to the unfolding recovery.

1.   Real GDP:

•         The Central Bank projects that the economy will have contracted 2.5% in 2009.

•         It now projects Canadian output to expand 2.9% in 2010, slightly below the 3% growth expected in October 2009.

•         However, it has upgraded its 2011 outlook to 3.5% from 3.3%.

•         Strong exposure to commodities and strong trading links to the U.S., which accounts for 80% of Canada’s exports, makes Canada vulnerable to the global economy.

•         Historical GDP growth:

•         1970’s: 4.27%

•         1980’s: 3.04%

•         1990’s: 2.44%

•         2000’s: 2. 68%

2.   Inflation:

•         Annual inflation was at 1.3%, its highest level since 1.4% in February, due largely to the effect of a steep decline in gasoline prices in December 2008.

•         Core inflation which excludes gasoline stood at 1.5%.

•         Current target inflation rate: 2%

•         Inflation was a headline issue in Canada in the 1970s and early 1980s, but it has rarely risen above 3 per cent since 1992.

•         The first spike was in 1974 when inflation rose sharply to 11 per cent, mainly as a result of the dramatic increase in oil prices, what some have called “oil price shock.”

•         The second spike was in 1981, when inflation hit 12.5 per cent. Tighter monetary policy cut inflation by half within two years.

3.   Unemployment:

•         After 15 years of near-consistent unemployment rate reductions, the current global economic crisis pushed Canada’s unemployment rate up in 2008 and 2009.

•         Following a large increase in November, employment was unchanged in December.

•         Unemployment rate remained at 8.5%.

•         In December, employment rose in health care and social assistance, as well as in professional, scientific and technical services. The largest declines were in transportation and warehousing, business, building and other support services, and public administration.

•         In recent months, a number of industries have contributed to the stabilization in employment. Construction which had been trending down is up 30,000 since March.

4.   General commentary:

•         Issues facing Canada: Strong Canadian dollar, weakened export demand, dropping commodity prices, more expensive credit, and laggard labor market condition.

•         Key difference between U.S. and Canada is exposure to subprime lending.

•         Subprime lending, while already minimal, has virtually disappeared in Canada.

•         The generally conservative lending practices in Canada resulted in limited exposure to the risk.  In October 2008, subprime loans only accounted for 5% of outstanding mortgages. Only a fifth of the 5% were variable rate loans.

5.   Policy support, increased consumer confidence, improving credit conditions and improved terms of trade are lending support to the recovery that is underway in Canada.

6.   However, the strengthening loonies and sluggish U.S. demand present downside risks to Canada’s recovery.

Case in point: The Central Bank kept interest rates at the lowest level in 2009

•         The Bank of Canada lowered the overnight interest rates to 0.25% in April, the lowest effective rate on record in response to highly uncertain global market outlook as well as deteriorating credit conditions which had quickly plagued trade, financial, and confidence channels.

•         The central bank also made a conditional commitment to maintain that level until the end of the second quarter in 2010.

•         Canada’s economic leaders are now worried that low interest rates are luring consumers into taking on huge amount of debt that they may not be able to pay back when interest rates rise from their historic low levels.

•         The Canadian government is afraid that Canadians will default on the loans that are used to buy homes.

•         The average Canadians have increased their personal debt by more than 1,000 Canadian dollars (about 955 U.S. dollars) in the first half of 2009, driving up the nation’s personal debt by 44 billion Canadian dollars (US$ 42 billion).

•         This headline interest rate sets the trend for other key rates, such as lending for automobiles, mortgages, and commercial loans.

1.   Though the price of oil has risen over the past few months, it is nowhere near the triple digit numbers it logged last year.

2.   This time, however, the Canadian dollar is rising primarily because world markets are losing faith in the US dollar, usually considered a safe reserve, and looking for havens elsewhere.

3.   The Loonies’ last surge in 2007 was driven mainly by rising prices for oil and other commodities, which helped offset losses in Canada’s manufacturing and export industries.

•         The Canadian dollar reached equal value to the U.S. dollar in September 2007 for the first time in three decades as prices soared for commodities such as crude oil, copper and aluminum, which account for about half the country’s export revenue.

•         It plummeted 18 percent in 2007, the most ever, as a global recession curbed demand for the same commodities.

4.   Historical exchange rates 1999-2009:

•         Low: 0.6202 USD

•         Average: 0.7749 USD

•         High: 1.0852 USD

Source: Bank of Canada

1.   CREA membership is now at the highest level on record.

•         2009: 98,000

•         2008: 97,200

2.   A larger increase in home sales coupled with a marginal increase in membership resulted in a greater number of sides available per agent.

3.   Number of transactions per agent jumped 7% from 2008, the largest gain since 2001.

4.   Average sales per agent:

•         Past 10 years: 11.1

•         Past 20 years: 9.6

Note: Available sides calculation is based on total existing home sales.

What the Canadian Government Is Doing

•         Given the strength of Canada’s economy, they have needed minimal interaction from the government compared to the US over the past year.

•           Although 97% of stimulus funds that are controlled by the federal government that have been committed, estimates state that as of December only about 12% of infrastructure funds have been spent. According to The Canadian Press “the government will have to start making a distinction between money that’s been committed and money that’s actually been spent, as is done in the U.S.”

•          As a result of the stimulus, specifically the home buyer and renovation tax credits, Canada has experienced the largest increase in domestic expenditures among the G7 countries over the past 6 months.

•          Some experts believe that the government should begin to pull back its support of the economy. If spending from the rest of the businesses and consumers is enough to keep the economy running at a healthy level, unnecessary spending by the government can cause inflation.

The economy has improved tremendously over the past year.

Consumer confidence fell to a near record low in December 2008.  It is currently back to near the historical average.

Canada’s banking system has been touted as the strongest.

•          Many of the infrastructure projects in the stimulus bill will begin

•          The government believes it’s too soon to pull the planned stimulus back because a large portion of Canada’s economic activity is in the exporting sector.

•          This leaves Canada sensitive to other county’s financial conditions.

•          When Canada’s dollar, the Loonie, is strong it makes it more expensive and less attractive for other countries to purchase Canadian goods

•         The Loonie has been very strong this year

•         Home buyer tax relief

Anyone who has not owned a home in the past 5 years, and whose spouse has not owned a home in the past 5 years, qualifies as a first-time buyer.  Family members who are purchasing a home for a relative with a qualifying disability also qualify for the credit.  Unlike the U.S. tax credit, there are no income limits.

The tax credit is calculated by multiplying $5,000 by the lowest personal income tax rate for the year which was 15% in 2009.  This means the amount of money homebuyer will receive is $750, as shown by this calculation:  15% x $5,000 = $750

A qualifying home is a housing unit located in Canada acquired after January 27, 2009. This includes existing homes and those being constructed. Single-family homes, semi‑detached homes, townhouses, mobile homes, condominium units, and apartments in duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, or apartment buildings all qualify.  Certain co-ops also qualify.

The homebuyer (or relative with a qualifying disability) must occupy the home within one year of purchasing.

The home must have closed after January 27, 2009.

The language states “For 2009 and subsequent years, the HBTC is a new non-refundable tax credit,…”.  It does not provide a conclusive end date. This has been verified by the Canadian Revenue Agency.  Any changes to this credit will be incorporated into the federal budget.

Given the strong demand from homebuyers, evidenced by the national numbers indicating a strong seller’s market, the government may feel it does not need to stimulate additional demand in the housing market.  It would not be surprising if there are provisions in the 2010 budget to sunset the credit.

•         Increase in withdrawal limits from retirement savings plan

{still gathering additional information on this}

-         Withdrawal limits for Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to increase from $20,000 to $25,000 for first-time home buyers

-         {This may have increased the number of home buyers in the market.}

•         Home renovation tax credit

- Up to $1,350 in tax relief to reduce the cost of renovations

- Renovations must be between $1,000 and $10,000 and occur between January 27, 2009 and February 1, 2010.

{still gathering additional information on this}

{This credit could have been an incentive for homeowners to prepare their homes to sell in the future.  Now that the market has recovered, this could mean that the homes available for sale have had more renovations than those for sale a year ago. ??}

•         EcoENERGY Retrofit Program

Funds to support home energy efficiency retrofits

{Retrofit: definition}

•         Social Housing Investments

–     Construction for low-income seniors, persons with disabilities

–     New social housing units

–     Renovations, energy retrofits, and additional support for existing social housing units

2. Competition Bureau versus CREA

EVENT TIMELINE:

September 2006: CREA assembled in Halifax to continue discussion on resolution of MLS® trade mark issues.

•         At its Special Assembly in Halifax, CREA brought forward a set of resolutions to prevent non-Realtors from using MLS.

•         These resolutions were deferred until CREA’s AGM in March, after concerns were raised by some CREA members, as well as the federal Competition Bureau, that the resolutions might be anti-competitive.

March 2007: CREA members approved the “MLS Interpretations” at its AGM.

•         At CREA’s AGM, members approved the “MLS Interpretations”, seven guidelines to ensure that MLS Rules and Regulations would be uniformly interpreted and enforced by all boards across Canada.

•         The three Interpretations and the Agency Pillar were intended to ensure that consumers receive consistently high-quality listing information and service through Realtor.ca and that that Realtors’ professional agency obligations are fulfilled.

•         The seven guidelines include:

1.   The listing agent shall receive and present all offers and counter offers to the seller.

2.   The listing agent shall be available to provide professional advice and counsel to the seller on all offers and counter-offers unless otherwise directed by the seller in writing.

3.   The mere posting of property information in an MLS® system is contrary to CREA’s Rules. A “mere posting” occurs when the listing agreement relieves the listing member of any obligations under the Rules, including the obligation that the listing agent remains the agent of the seller throughout the duration of the brokerage (listing) contract.

4.   The listing agent is responsible and accountable for the accuracy of information submitted to a Board/Association for inclusion in the Board’s MLS® system, and the Board/Association is responsible for ensuring that the data submitted to it meets reasonable standards of quality.

5.   Only agents are permitted to display the MLS® trademarks in signage, advertising, etc.

6.   Only the listing agent name(s) and contact information may appear on REALTOR.ca. The seller’s name or contact information shall not appear on REALTOR.ca or in the public remarks section of the MLS® system.

7.   In cases where a Board permits listings in which the seller has reserved the right to sell the property himself/herself, that fact shall be specified in the Board’s MLS® database.

•         This came after the federal Competition Bureau formally launched an investigation to determine:

•         If CREA had restricted access to MLS in ways that were anti-competitive, and

•         Whether the way CREA was interpreting some of its rules constituted a violation of the Competition Act.

October 2009: The Competition Bureau announced that it wanted key sections of CREA’s access rules removed.

•         The bureau alleged, based on the findings of its three-year investigation into CREA’s access rules regarding its trademarked MLS system, that these rules have restricted consumer choice of the real estate services they want, forcing them to pay for services they do not need, and limited the scope of alternative business models by preventing real estate firms from offering unbundled services and pricing options to consumers via the website.

•         The Competition Bureau wants CREA to remove its “Agency Pillar” and Interpretations 1, 3, and 6.

•         The changes put forward by the bureau impact key aspects of CREA’s trademarked MLS system that the association has been striving to protect:

•         The Three Pillars of MLS, the importance of which it began actively promoting since 2002:

1.   Membership: Only real estate agents may place a listing on a Board/Association’s MLS® System.

2.   Broker (Agency): A listing agent must act as agent for the seller to sell the property and assist the seller for the duration of the brokerage (listing) contract.

3.   Compensation Sharing: The listing agent agrees to pay to the buyer’s agent compensation for the cooperative selling of the property.

•         The three Interpretations and the Agency Pillar that the bureau wants removed represent a core CREA principle which is that Realtors remain central to the listing and selling of real estate carried on the MLS system and posted on Realtor.ca, CREA’s public website.

February 2010: The Competition Bureau filed case against CREA.

•         The Competition Bureau announced on February 8 that it was ceasing negotiations with CREA and filing application to the Competition Tribunal, a quasi-judicial body that has the authority to issue fines and prohibition orders, to strike down the allegedly anti-competitive rules.

•         In its tribunal filing, the bureau targeted four key conditions contained in CREA’s existing MLS rules:  CREA’s “Agency” rule and MLS Interpretations 1, 3 and 6.

•         CREA, in its defense, said it had already notified the bureau that it was in the process of redrafting its MLS rules for presentation to its March AGM, to try to address the bureau’s concerns.

•         Those drafted changes include a significant revision to the “Agency” provision, as well as complete deletions of two of the three Interpretations that the bureau has cited in its filing with the tribunal.

•         In a dispatch to CREA members issued the same day as the bureau filed notice with the tribunal, CREA president Dale Ripplinger laid out a draft of the proposed revisions to the Interpretations, which will be introduced at CREA’s March AGM.

•         Key among CREA’s MLS access revisions:

•         Removal of Interpretation 1

•         Removal of Interpretation 3

•         If CREA’s draft proposals are approved at the March AGM, only one of the three Interpretations specifically targeted by the bureau will remain in effect.

•         CREA was still unclear about in terms of potential impacts from the changes to Interpretation 6 being proposed by the Competition Bureau.  Removing Interpretation 6 would mean that buyers’ agents would be able to get sellers’ contact information directly from MLS listings instead of having to contact the listing agent.

•         No date has yet been set for the Competition Tribunal hearing.

Six plainclothes officers carrying boxes arrived at the semi-detached house shared by Col. Russell Williams and his wife shortly after noon.

They papered over windows at the home in Ottawa’s tony Westboro neighbourhood. The couple’s BMW remained parked in the driveway.

Williams, the former commander of Canada’s largest military airfield, Canadian Forces Base Trenton, was arrested Sunday in Ottawa. The body of one of the victims, Jessica Lloyd, was found Monday.

Williams, 46, of Tweed, Ont., was charged with first-degree murder in the deaths of Lloyd, 27, and Cpl. Marie-France Comeau, 37.

Comeau was based Trenton and served as a steward aboard the same military VIP flights Williams piloted for much of the 1990s, ferrying the Governor General, the prime minister and other dignitaries on domestic and overseas trips.

Williams is also charged with two sexual assaults in the same Tweed neighbourhood where he and wife Mary Elizabeth Harriman had a cottage. Tweed is near CFB Trenton.

Harriman is the associate executive director of the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada and was living in the couple’s recently built Ottawa home.

According to a search warrant issued before Williams emerged as the primary suspect in the cases, detectives entered the home of a prior suspect looking for lingerie, baby blankets and computer data storage devices.

The warrant was related to attacks on two women who were bound and sexually assaulted in their homes last September. Both women lived within walking distance of the Williams cottage.

Besides two first-degree murder charges, Williams faces two counts of forcible confinement and two counts of break and enter and sexual assault relating to the attacks. His cottage was cordoned off by police tape and an OPP trailer was parked outside earlier this week.

Williams reportedly came to the attention of investigators at a roadside checkpoint last week when his SUV’s unusual tires were linked to treadmarks at one of the crime scenes.

A Kingston, Ont., newspaper reports Williams was placed on a suicide watch when he first he arrived at a provincial jail in Napanee, Ont.

Williams would only give authorities his name, rank and serial number when he was first processed at the Quinte Detention Centre, the Whig-Standard reported sources as saying Thursday.

On Wednesday, Williams was allowed to exchange his suicide gown for a regular, orange jumpsuit, the paper reported.

Police are looking into Williams’ past postings to see if there are any links to similar cold-case files elsewhere.

Williams attended Upper Canada College, an elite Toronto boarding school, for two years in the early 1980s. At the time, he went by his stepfather’s surname, Sovka.

He flew under the radar during his time there, said Innes van Nostrand, who graduated the same year as Williams.

“He was kind of a diligent, hard-working fellow who was not a high-profile guy here,” said van Nostrand, now a vice-principal at the school.

“That’s how I think most people in the class would probably describe him: a serious student and a really good musician.”

He was known as a talented trumpet player and an upstanding student who showed leadership qualities even then. According to his yearbook write-up, he was among five prefects at his dorm known as Wedd’s House. He graduated in 1982.

“It came as a shock,” van Nostrand said.

The brother of Williams’ former stepfather, Stan Sovka, and his wife Madeline were stunned to learn of the charges.

“That’s not the guy we know,” Madeline Sovka said from Calgary.

“We knew a very nice man, a nice boy growing up, no problem, very gentle.”

The Sovkas haven’t seen Williams in many years, but they have been kept up-to-date on his life from his mother, Nonie Sovka, who was married to Stan Sovka’s brother, Jerry.